So I was contemplating the ceiling potential of UGC contribution in SA right now?

We cannot escape the fact that the market is limited and SA users are not really web-cultured/savvy. The critical mass is also not there as we would like it. People are not plugged in and “always on” as in other markets.

I see the 90-1-9 rule playing out on most of our 24.com products. - 1% contribute and create a lot! 9 % a little and the rest just read. 

So extrapolate that to the size of the SA market of 5.6 million local users(according to the OPA stats), and the result is: 

56 000 South African online users are potentially avid generators of content, while another 504 000 will participate. - The rest will just view content.

Note that this assumption applies to user-generated content and not social networking participation. This is a reasonable assumption of the potential in the market in my view.

Arthur Goldstuck did research into the local blog market (December 2007) and asked all local blog providers and aggregators to participate to achieve a view on the total numbers. The result was 3 700 active blogs. We estimate no more than 5000 active currently. - Which means that roughly 0.1% of South Africans are blogging.

In addition to this Amatomu.com according to Nielsen stats has about 8 000 monthly unique users which amplifies the penetration of blogging in SA. It is nowhere near a mainstream activity.

I also realise that blogs are not the only form of UGC - people are also uploading pictures/videos to Flickr, Photobucket, Youtube, Zoopy, Blueworld and all the others out there. 

The kicker to this theory is that SA usage of Wikipedia and Youtube is huge according to both Alexa and Comscore Media Metrix -  but I doubt that people are contributing and rather passively viewing the content.

There certainly is a pure mathematical limit to potential. Another case in point is that we know as a general rule of thumb on may products that 10% of people will register. No matter how good your product is you may move the needle a little but chances of re-writing the rules are slim. 

Why am I writing this? Well with the wave of elation in the web2.0 space we have to honest with ourselves as early adopters and understand that the mass of SA users are not using Twitter, Friendfeed and all the other cool products out there.

Does that represent an opportunitygap in the local market? Maybe. Does this imply that SA start-ups should be thinking global rather than local if you want to get real traction. – Probably.

It’s a real challenge. But these are things to consider when putting down your business plan. At the end of the day marketers are looking for reach among other things and reach is something we grapple with in this market.